Health Economics Scenario Lab
ClearPath
Explore how earlier diagnosis might reduce emergency pathway pressure, admissions, bed use, and economic burden under a consistent set of assumptions.
Scope and use note
ClearPath is an exploratory scenario sandbox. It is designed to test how changes in late diagnosis burden, achievable shift, reach, persistence, and delivery cost might influence potential pathway and economic value. It does not replace formal evaluation, forecasting, or business case development.
Signal
Appears cost-saving
Discounted net saving
£194,133
Cost/QALY
£-8,583
Headline view
Start with the current decision signal and the main economic outputs.
Cases shifted earlier
117
Emergency presentations avoided
20
Discounted net saving
£194,133
Discounted cost per QALY
£-8,583
Return on spend
1.27x
Max intervention cost per case
£764
Required late diagnosis reduction
3.7%
Overall signal
Promising for further exploration. The current configuration appears cost-saving. The case appears fairly robust across bounded low, base, and high cases.
Main dependency
treatment cost, later diagnosis
Main fragility
The bounded range crosses decision categories, and one-way sensitivity suggests the case is particularly exposed to treatment cost, later diagnosis.
Next best step
Validate local treatment cost, later diagnosis and treatment cost, earlier diagnosis before using the result in a live decision conversation.
Charts
Primary chart first, with supporting views below.
Cost vs savings
Cumulative programme cost compared with cumulative gross savings.
Assumptions
Adjust the core assumptions first, then use advanced sections for pathway, cost, and outcome detail.
Core assumptions
Share of cases currently diagnosed later.
Absolute reduction achieved by the intervention.
Share of cases effectively reached.
Analysis
Review the recommendation readout, uncertainty, sensitivity, and assumption review.
Report export
Export a structured summary of the current assumptions, results, and interpretation.
Admissions avoided
20
Bed days avoided
119
Return on spend
1.27x
Recommendation summary
What this suggests
ClearPath suggests the intervention generates measurable pathway benefit and a discounted net saving over 3 years. The current case is promising, but still depends on assumptions that remain partly illustrative.
What is driving it
treatment cost, later diagnosis
What looks fragile
The bounded range crosses decision categories, and one-way sensitivity suggests the case is particularly exposed to treatment cost, later diagnosis.
What to validate next
Validate local treatment cost, later diagnosis and treatment cost, earlier diagnosis before using the result in a live decision conversation.
Uncertainty readout
Low
£8,854
92 cases shifted earlier · Appears cost-effective
Base
£-8,583
117 cases shifted earlier · Appears cost-saving
High
£-15,864
141 cases shifted earlier · Appears cost-saving
Top sensitivity drivers
Driver 1
Treatment cost, later diagnosis
Largest ICER swing: £20,000
Driver 2
Treatment cost, earlier diagnosis
Largest ICER swing: £12,000
Driver 3
Achievable reduction in late diagnosis
Largest ICER swing: £7,854
Decision readout
Overall summary
Over 3 years, ClearPath suggests the intervention could shift around 117 cases earlier, avoid 20 emergency presentations and 20 admissions, while appearing cost-saving on a discounted basis. The current case uses treatment cost difference only. The result is most strongly shaped by treatment cost, later diagnosis. The case appears fairly robust across bounded low, base, and high cases.
Uncertainty readout
The case appears fairly robust across bounded low, base, and high cases.
Interpretation summary
ClearPath suggests the intervention generates measurable pathway benefit and a discounted net saving over 3 years. The current case is promising, but still depends on assumptions that remain partly illustrative.
Confidence summary
3 high-confidence, 12 medium-confidence, and 5 low-confidence assumptions are currently in play.
Headline view
Start with the current decision signal and the main economic outputs.
Cases shifted earlier
117
Emergency presentations avoided
20
Discounted net saving
£194,133
Discounted cost per QALY
£-8,583
Return on spend
1.27x
Max intervention cost per case
£764
Required late diagnosis reduction
3.7%
Overall signal
Promising for further exploration. The current configuration appears cost-saving. The case appears fairly robust across bounded low, base, and high cases.
Main dependency
treatment cost, later diagnosis
Main fragility
The bounded range crosses decision categories, and one-way sensitivity suggests the case is particularly exposed to treatment cost, later diagnosis.
Next best step
Validate local treatment cost, later diagnosis and treatment cost, earlier diagnosis before using the result in a live decision conversation.
Charts
Primary chart first, with supporting views below.
Cost vs savings
Cumulative programme cost compared with cumulative gross savings.
Cases shifted earlier
Annual shift from later to earlier diagnosis across the selected horizon.
Pathway impact
Headline pathway changes over the selected horizon.
Bounded uncertainty
Low, base, and high cases against the current threshold.
One-way sensitivity
Top drivers of discounted cost per QALY when varied one at a time.
Assumptions
Adjust the core assumptions first, then use advanced sections for pathway, cost, and outcome detail.
Core assumptions
Share of cases currently diagnosed later.
Absolute reduction achieved by the intervention.
Share of cases effectively reached.
Advanced assumptions
Analysis
Review the recommendation readout, uncertainty, sensitivity, and assumption review.
Report export
Export a structured summary of the current assumptions, results, and interpretation.
Admissions avoided
20
Bed days avoided
119
Return on spend
1.27x
Recommendation summary
What this suggests
ClearPath suggests the intervention generates measurable pathway benefit and a discounted net saving over 3 years. The current case is promising, but still depends on assumptions that remain partly illustrative.
What is driving it
treatment cost, later diagnosis
What looks fragile
The bounded range crosses decision categories, and one-way sensitivity suggests the case is particularly exposed to treatment cost, later diagnosis.
What to validate next
Validate local treatment cost, later diagnosis and treatment cost, earlier diagnosis before using the result in a live decision conversation.
Uncertainty readout
Low
£8,854
92 cases shifted earlier · Appears cost-effective
Base
£-8,583
117 cases shifted earlier · Appears cost-saving
High
£-15,864
141 cases shifted earlier · Appears cost-saving
Top sensitivity drivers
Driver 1
Treatment cost, later diagnosis
Largest ICER swing: £20,000
Driver 2
Treatment cost, earlier diagnosis
Largest ICER swing: £12,000
Driver 3
Achievable reduction in late diagnosis
Largest ICER swing: £7,854
Assumption review
Annual incident cases
1,000
Operational estimate · Medium confidence
Current late diagnosis rate
32.0%
Evidence-informed proxy · Medium confidence
Achievable reduction in late diagnosis
7.0%
Illustrative default · Low confidence
Intervention reach rate
65.0%
Operational estimate · Medium confidence
Emergency presentation rate, later diagnosis
25.0%
Evidence-informed proxy · Medium confidence
Emergency presentation rate, earlier diagnosis
8.0%
Evidence-informed proxy · Medium confidence
Admissions per emergency presentation
1.0
Operational estimate · Medium confidence
Average length of stay
6.0
Operational estimate · Medium confidence
Intervention cost per case reached
£400
Operational estimate · Medium confidence
Treatment cost, earlier diagnosis
£12,000
Operational estimate · Medium confidence
Treatment cost, later diagnosis
£20,000
Operational estimate · Medium confidence
Cost per emergency admission
£4,000
Operational estimate · Medium confidence
Cost per bed day
£450
Illustrative default · Low confidence
Costing method
Treatment cost difference only
User override · Medium confidence
QALY gain per case shifted earlier
0.20
Evidence-informed proxy · Low confidence
Annual effect decay
10.0%
Illustrative default · Low confidence
Annual participation drop-off
6.0%
Illustrative default · Low confidence
Time horizon
3
User override · High confidence
Discount rate
3.5%
Evidence-informed proxy · High confidence
Cost-effectiveness threshold
£20,000
Illustrative default · High confidence
Decision readout
Overall summary
Over 3 years, ClearPath suggests the intervention could shift around 117 cases earlier, avoid 20 emergency presentations and 20 admissions, while appearing cost-saving on a discounted basis. The current case uses treatment cost difference only. The result is most strongly shaped by treatment cost, later diagnosis. The case appears fairly robust across bounded low, base, and high cases.
Uncertainty readout
The case appears fairly robust across bounded low, base, and high cases.
Interpretation summary
ClearPath suggests the intervention generates measurable pathway benefit and a discounted net saving over 3 years. The current case is promising, but still depends on assumptions that remain partly illustrative.
Confidence summary
3 high-confidence, 12 medium-confidence, and 5 low-confidence assumptions are currently in play.